You might ask him if he's checked sales figures for say the BMW Mini lately. Or whether he'd rather have stock in GM or Honda? Or have him take a guess at how much the US automakers spend each year on advertising to persuade Americans that they want big vehicles.
"...he thinks in a year we will see $2.75 per gallon again in the U.S. and it won't matter..."
My, how things change How long ago was it that people were complaining that gas was too high at $2.50/gallon? A year? Less?
Having to pay more at the pump is only the beginning....look at the knock-on effect ( driven by our need for transporting goods) its having on the economies of the world.
Everything is getting more expensive and will continue to do so, anything that’s mobile even the plumber that makes house calls will charge more.
The cost of heating your home and hot water,food purchase's etc etc.
The pump price rise even though its the factor driving this is almost insignificant in comparison.
There are a lot of die-hards out there in denial but the hand writing is on the wall, the good times are over for the foreseeable future.
I look forward to the more wide use of renewable energy sources to supply humans with the energy they use... I am still fairly young... it might even happen in my life time... especially given the rapid rate of growth in all fields renewable energy... and I further look forward to the excessive distances Dgate refers to in the U.S. going away... it is a waste of energy to make a product like a TV in China and transport it thousands of miles to get to me... the up side is that the more fossil fuel energy sources cost the faster the urban shrink will happen.... but $4 and $5 a gallon gasoline is just not high enough... I suspect it will be a sliding scale right now low income people are starting to feel the pinch of driving that gas guzzler to and from work ... but most people over $35,000 a year will complain about it but is not likely to change how they live including distances and vehicle and will still avoid mass transit... even with the secondary effects of increased costs... I suspect the majority of $40,000 a year income people generally will begin to look at the choices they have made when it gets to $10 or so per gallon and might change jobs or replace that old pickup... most at $60,000 probably won't change until it gets over $20 per gallon... unless of course it is trendy and in fashion then it will happen sooner.
edit:
forgot to include... based on the average gasoline prices in the U.S. from the last 20 years it is likely though that we will not see $10.00 per gallon gasoline in the U.S. until about 2020 +/- 21 months... but it is an exponential curve... so if the trends continue we would then see an average of about $15 per gallon in the U.S. by 2030 +/- 26 Month .... and about $24 per gallon by 2040 +/- 33 Months....
Making your future predictions based on the last 20 years is flawed since the things affecting oil prices recently and in the future are unique and haven't been experienced before.
In the past oil was plentiful and cheap except for glitches such as the Panama crisis or when OPEC was founded after which things returned to normal with only normal inflation accounting for price increases over time.
Today with increasing world demand and declining reserves your prediction may be accelerated as seen in the last few years.
There has been no data or point of reference for what's happening and any warnings, predictions etc from the experts in the field have been met with disdain, scepticism and misinformation from the public, government, media and oil companies.
This centuries energy problems are a whole new ball game.
What you are talking about is normal inflation over 36 yrs.
Whats happening today is a shift in manufacturering out of the US,financial institutions going under,dollar devaluing,people loosing their homes and the cost at the pump jumping with every little hicup in world events which reverberates right through the system resulting in everything costing more.
Making your future predictions based on the last 20 years is flawed
Of course but it is known data that follows within 5.49% of an equation which can be used to make estimates... Any prediction of the future will have margins for error and flaws because the real world is way too complex.
So far I have been hearing doom's day speak about gas prices for over 10 years... the crisis is always described as imminent and going to smack us in the face in x number of months... cause society to collapse and a mad max type of world... and yet 10 years latter no massive crisis has happened no massive monthly change has happened... and yet the same doom's day talk still floats around despite being wrong more often than the weather man.... the economic model of future predictions of course is flawed... but so far it has a better track record of accuracy than the doom's day talk does.... I remember people giving doom's day talk about Y2K remember that... oh wait nothing bad happened everything was fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dgate
Today with increasing world demand and declining reserves your prediction may be accelerated as seen in the last few years.
true... but that is only one side of it... there are factors that are intertwined with the cost of fossil fuels like gasoline... as gasoline becomes more expensive less is wasted , more alternatives become cost effective, people becomes more willing to change... etc...etc...
Quote:
Originally Posted by uhtrinity
I wish I could be as optimistic on prices. I myself expect $10 a gallon or more by 2012. I can't even begin to guess what 2020 will look like.
If the U.S. sees $10 per gallon before 2018 I will be surprised... it might happen... but it would not follow the current trends... I am still predicting 2020 and at most 2022 to see $10 per gallon in the U.S.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gpsman1
It's all relative folks. Gasoline is STILL very cheap.
Gas is STILL not as costly as it should be.
I 100% agree... jack that price up... make people feel it ...
"I remember people giving doom's day talk about Y2K remember that... oh wait nothing bad happened everything was fine."
And why was everything fine? Because lots of people put a lot of effort into finding & fixing the problems before they did any damage. If we'd followed the Y2K scenario, we'd have started serious work on transportation alternatives back in the '70s, and would all be driving Stirling engine powered, grid-chargable hybrids, when we weren't taking electric powered trains & busses.
would all be driving Stirling engine powered, grid-chargable hybrids, when we weren't taking electric powered trains & busses.
Now that is a future worth smiling about
Of course I would like for things to be further along then they are.... but in a way I am also glad they are not... because it is an exciting time to see and live with the changes happening ... and to appreciate what is happening... for example , if you grew up with the internet always being there you are not likely to appreciate it as much... People have been working on greener technology for a very long time... and lots of progress has been made... All great stuff... and more being put into production every year... I guess for for those who expect a U.S. Average gas price to be about $10 per gallon by 2010 or 2012... We will just have to wait and see... and then bring this thread back and see where things are by then.... given current trends I am expecting ~$5 per gallon by ~2010 as a U.S. Average gas price.
Only time will tell...
still brings a smile to my face to think about how far things have come and where they are going... The future is bright and sunny the glass is nearly overflowing.
The AutoGuide.com network consists of the largest network of enthusiast-owned enthusiast-operated automotive communities.
AutoGuide.com provides the latest car reviews, auto show coverage, new car prices, and automotive news. The AutoGuide network operates more than 100 automotive forums where our users consult peers for shopping information and advice, and share opinions as a community.
Re: Global Gas Prices
How long ago was it that people were complaining that gas was too high at $2.50/gallon? A year? Less?
I suspect it will be a sliding scale right now low income people are starting to feel the pinch of driving that gas guzzler to and from work ... but most people over $35,000 a year will complain about it but is not likely to change how they live including distances and vehicle and will still avoid mass transit... even with the secondary effects of increased costs... I suspect the majority of $40,000 a year income people generally will begin to look at the choices they have made when it gets to $10 or so per gallon and might change jobs or replace that old pickup... most at $60,000 probably won't change until it gets over $20 per gallon... unless of course it is trendy and in fashion then it will happen sooner.
