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I just heard on TV this morning that improvements in infection rates in Italy and Spain are occurring. I went to the Johns Hopkins site to analyze the data for myself.


To see that the infection rates are improving, one needs to look at the bottom right graph of the numbers of infections. It is important to look at the graph in "logarithmic" sense. There is a button below to select logarithmic mode. If one looks at the Italian and Spanish data, it is seen that the logarithmic curve is bending, so the situation is improving. Even the U.S. curve is now improving although the infestation struck the U.S. later.

In practical term, this means that the "multiplier" is being reduced. Instead of 1 infecting 5 or6, the multiplied in diminishing an 1 is infecting fewer. When the log curve is flat, then 1 is infecting 1. When the log curve bend negative, one is infecting less than 1 on average. On a more straight forward observation, mitigation techniques such as social distancing, quarantining, masks, avoiding contact, etc. are beginning to show result. The situation is more hopeful.

I don't mean to claim that the problem is over, far from it. We still have many urban centers which developing into hot spots, but I do see some improvements in the JH data. There is an even more encouraging aspect to this data. The cases the data counts are current diagnosed cases. Since there is a delay of maybe 5-10 days in the data, the bending of the logarithmic cure reflects improvements which occured in the past. If the same mitigation measure are maintained, the "current" multiplier should actually be even better.

I see the situation as improving as Dr Fuchi has said, but we certainly can't let up on our efforts yet. I just wanted to observe that there are some tiny reasons for hope.
 

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Spoken well by the man from the south.

It takes a lot of effort to protect your family. My sister’s husband put on two mask today protective clothing and the goggles. He bought me my other sister and his household groceries. Went to three different stores.. He works at the hospital. When they got the food they left it outside sprayed it to kill the virus and I have lots of respect for them.

and I went and got about 180 pounds of meat last night to share with my family. We are working together as a team. I have not been in either of their houses in a month. To reduce exposure.

And my great niece will be two years old August 24 I haven’t picked her up or hug her in six weeks. But I do talk to her through the window of the house. And she gives me five through the plate glass. Protect protect protect

She’s getting tired of where is your nose. But still likes to jump.
 

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I've been dividing today's number of infected with yesterday's and plotting the quotient as a percent change. Of course, the outcome depends on the shameful lack of testing in this country. Still, the ratio of new to old is steadying and, some days, shows a decrease. This county's numbers show a similar trend. Encouraging...

85073
 

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Interesting map...
85075
 

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I think people from Scandinavian countries that settled in America. Probably have a better immune system than others. The delta 32 gene’s

Sounds like over in Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Some of Germany less infections less death toll.

my great great great granddaddy was in the revolution he was a doctor wrote letters to Benjamin Franklin to get permission to go back over the pond to Denmark to get his inheritance. Must’ve been a lot of money because people were afraid to make the trip. Like Benjamin Franklin‘s wife. He didn’t see her for 16 years when he lived in England.
 

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Type B here. You A’s shut me up and make me stutter. So, Question: its been said, the dose,
or number of viruses one is exposed to can be compared to a high or low dose of poison. Seems to affect the severity of COVID infection. Low dose, small number of viruses take longer to ramp up population in tissues. This gives the immune system more time to develop immunity without being overwhelmed. Thus empowered it successfully overcomes the infection. Could extremely low infection be managed as a vaccine? Plucking at straws here, ever hopefully?!? Thoughts?
 

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This gives the immune system more time to develop immunity without being overwhelmed. Thus empowered it successfully overcomes the infection. Could extremely low infection be managed as a vaccine? Plucking at straws here, ever hopefully?!? Thoughts?
I think you are essentially correct. In fact, the process you outline is essentially the basis of vaccines. The idea is to expose the body, through a low level of the virus or usually sterile versions of the virus, to trick the body's immune system into fighting the injection and therefore developing immunity to the targeted virus.
 

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Here’s what I can you Mr. Eric.

Your immune system is tricked by covid 19. Do not respond for 3 to 21 days. Better to have a quick response less infection for the immune system to fight.

Take extreme hot baths or hot sauna in your car and then cool off. That will help your immune system to fight the disease better and quicker..

I learned this on ((((((((med cram))))))
I think it’s number 43 on the episodes.
it is on YouTube. Is the advice I’m following to try and survive this.

Don’t smoke if you’re obese lose the weight immediately don’t drink alcohol look at Google take advice on how to strengthen immunehttps://youtu.be/EFRwnhfWXxo

And good luck.
 

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Where did you read the part about the immune system being tricked by COVID? I thought the immune system had already been tricked by the best of em.
 

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Thanks Nathan. I’m reading Bill Bryson’s, The Body. He presents the best, most detailed description of the immune system in his chapter on blood, that I have read any where. That’s where I got my idea about low dose. That and a recent article in the NYT about the theory that many of the non symptomatic carriers are victims of very low dose infection. Jim you are right about that being the basis of vaccines. The common cold, and strains of flu are all Corona viruses. So dealing with them is right up your immune systems alley. My son ( a doc ) says we will all get it eventually. Can’t say for sure if he’s right or not. He says the trick is to hold it off as long as possible so the hospitals can get beyond the early rush ( and the White House bungling ) and be more able to treat us at that later date.
 

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Oh and a recommendation. Watch Fantastic Fungus! I have now watched it twice. Spoiler alert, part of it deals with the psychotropic qualities of some mushrooms. But it’s about waaay more than that. Super interesting. Just might change your mind.
 

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Yeah the Doctor Who died in China was getting huge amounts of virus patient After patient after patient his immune system was overwhelmed.. He was 34 years old and got the best treatment they had didn’t make it.

and then I seen a Nurse she cleand her apartment every day. With disinfectant so that virus Would not get in her system again. She was alone for nine days until she recovered.

I’m also interested in bacteria that eat fat It might would render the virus harmless. Fat surrounds the virus
 

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Let's leave politics out of this,there been many presidents before ours that has failed to prepare for this including Obama who waited til 1000 deaths in the us before he even declared a national emergency than went golfing a hour later,this is not time to single out anybody ,or be color blind ,red or blue we are all Americans first,thank you to all who are doing being part,including all here who are sharing this info .
 

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2014 I got a flu shot I got the shot that keeps you from getting lockjaw shot.
Also got a pneumonia shot $90 good for 10 years. July 9, 2017 I bought a new car come on down.

How about a 2000 Honda insight that’s what I got. I did not run the air conditioner for the last three summers. I will get hot and sweat I would have a towel in the car that I Set sat on.

I have not been sick for three years at all. I just realized I may have my immune system ramped up already.

I am in a bulldozer now with the heater turned up all the way it’s sunny and I am extremely hot.

I want to live. I love the smell of aluminum in the morning!!I’m not wearing my glasses so I can’t really see what I read sorry if it’s real bad. I got sweat in my eyes
 

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It’s 5 o’clock in the morning I just found this video. Number 50. He really believes in the hot cold treatment.I’m doing it on the bulldozer and when I take my hot then cold shower this morning again. I hope y’all look at this video up above ——-med cram.

anyway he is showing everything you can imagine to fight the stuff he’s got 50 different episodes. He is also treating people with COVID-19 in the hospital. He also looked at the work of other doctors around the world. For some reason if this guy gives it a nod I do too.
 

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People who have the infection for a long time 20 days but never have a cough runny nose fever back pain terrible headaches. I too thought they had a low rate infection .

but it’s my understanding now. Part of their immune system does not recognize the pathogen or virus. I’m trying to make my immune system noticed the virus immediately so it will be less of it to fight in the beginning. To me better to be symptomatic in three or four days instead of 20.

In China 20% of the population who tested positive for the virus never got sick that’s a different story from people who have the virus and get sick. There are no absolutes to describe this virus affect on different people. So I’m trying to learn everything I can in every direction when it’s my turn to fight it.

I am big on hot cold Treatments. Exercise breathing techniques listening to your favorite music laughing look at Johnny Carson show buddy Hackett the duck joke. Taking Vitamins thanks to my cousin. Having Tylenol a nebulizer when it’s needed. Staying away from people and supreme hygiene.
 
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