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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
When folks look at the Johns Hopkins(JH) University site to follow the coronavirus, they are looking a RAW infestation numbers. This way of looking at the data gives a false impression of how serious the infestation actually is by country. The Johns Hopkins link is here:


A more accurate method of looking at infestation is to consider it by rate, or the percentage of a country's population which has been infected. I have used the JH data and country population from this site:


to calculate and re rank the 7 top nations on the top of the JH list (ignoring China and Iran, which aren't likely accurate in the JH data). I wanted to reach down through U.K. in the raw data. I'm sure the rankings would change some if ALL the countries listed by JH would had been considered.

The infestation rates, by percentage of the country population are:
Switzerland=.0151%
Spain=.0144%
Italy=.0143%
Germany=.0063%
U.K.=.00508%
France=.00507%
U.S.=.003%

One would conclude that the U.S. isn't doing a bad job of containment, SO FAR.

There are many, many mitigating circumstances in this kind of analysis and it it accurate only on at 0800 3/28/2020. It will change.
1. Different countries are at different points in their infestation cycle.
2. Non of the countries considered above have yet bent or flattened their infestation growth curves, except for a slight hint in Switzerland.
3. Different countries are using slightly different methods of containment and there isn't an obvious "best" method.
4. The JH data is taken by different methods in different countries, so there are bound to be some inaccuracies. Their data methods are entirely transparent and are explained in the footnote on the "dashboard."
5. Uncertainty and probable variation of testing methods in the various countries.
6. Something I forgot;)

I welcome any spot checking of the calculations that anyone wants to do.
 

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Good analysis JIME. A big missing part of the equation is that we really don’t know how many people have the virus - or have had it and recovered. Only those people showing signs of Covid are tested. So there could be thousands of people who are infected with no sign of illness. So if these carriers don’t stay home because “I’m not sick”.... then we really won’t easily contain the spread. The best advice is to stay home & practice social distancing. Just assume you have the virus, and you don’t want to give it to your loved ones - or anyone!!
 
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Yes, you are correct about testing. The same thing can probably be said of other countries also. That factor "might" be flat across countries. There is a lot of uncertainty in the reported numbers. RIGHT, stay home until the curve peaks! I'm going to add you "uncertainty" observation to my list of mitigating circumstances.
 
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This is oversimplified but....

84936
 
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Discussion Starter #5
Here is an interesting article from the London Telegraph discussing the real nature of the Chinese infestation. Be sure to read the tweet of Jennifer Zeng at the end. China is probably under reporting, possibly by very wide margins. No one knows what the real Chinese numbers are?????


It is interesting that the patient on the left in the picture is lying on his stomach, as Nathan reported being practiced in China. I guess they found some marginal help in that. Also interesting that neither patient is hooked up to a ventilator.
 

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This John Hopkins info is very informative regarding the Corona virus / and viruses in general: (scary to read that the virus can float in the air for up to 3 HOURS!! So much for social distancing...?)


Scientific Facts:

Johns Hopkins University has sent this detailed note on avoiding the contagion:

* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.

* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.

* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.

* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.

* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.

* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.

* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.

* NO BACTERICIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.

* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, because it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.

* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.

* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.

* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.

* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.

* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.

* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.

* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.

* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.

* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.

* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
 

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What about the CORONA 19 having a patent number issued in 2014?
 

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Discussion Starter #8
That would be interesting. Where did you hear that? Source please.
 

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Thanks for the World-o-Meter link! It's good to have a different way of looking at things.

For fun, and to give myself something to do, I've been plinking about with simple modeling for the county in which I live and comparing the numbers to confirmed cases. It's a revelation to plot the % total population infected (we're at about 0.02% confirmed, so far, no deaths, no recovered), but as other have pointed out, the confirmed numbers are most likely not nearly high enough.

I live in a very small town with a college that has a large cohort of students from China. Many of them went home the first week of December and returned the first of January. I'm certain it was brought back here at that time. In fact, one of the first confirmed cases in the county was a college dining-hall employee.

As a result, I'm just about convinced that I fell ill with CoVid-19 two weeks before Ash Wednesday: Headache, fever, dry and lingering cough, and a pain in my lungs with minor shortness of breath that I've never experienced before in my life with any flu or cold I've ever suffered. My wife ended up with the sniffles about a week later. But, without antibody testing, who knows?

All the same... I'm "social distancing" and kind of loving it! It's the bee's knees for grumpy old(er) people like me!
 

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Discussion Starter #10
For fun, and to give myself something to do, I've been plinking about with simple modeling for the county in which I live and comparing the numbers to confirmed cases. It's a revelation to plot the % total population infected (we're at about 0.02% confirmed, so far, no deaths, no recovered), but as other have pointed out, the confirmed numbers are most likely not nearly high enough.
Which country are you in? Also, can you tell us a bit more about your model.
 

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County. Not country. I am in Lorain County, Ohio.

The model is very simple. Predicted values start with 1 and then, after 5 days, increase by a “r naught” multiplier (that’s the number of people each infected person infects) times the cases 5 days ago plus the previous day’s value. Right now, I’m using an r naught of 2.5 which is lower than the 3.3 reported in China but what seems to be reported here most often. Regular flu is about 1.5, or so. Measles is 16 to 18.

Total cases predicted is constrained by the population of the county, of course. You can’t infect more people than you have.

Confirmed cases are growing about 1.2 times each day, overall. The model grows at about 1.8, but the confirmed cases are slightly ahead after 2 weeks. More testing would allow for better stats, curve fitting, etc.

I can tell you, for sure, that my opinion is that the only chance we have to control it is to reduce the r naught by distancing and quarantine.

It’s not very sophisticated, but it gives me a general idea and keeps me interested.
 

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Sorry, old eyes must have grown dim;)

Thanks for the explanation. Models can provide some amusement, but they aren't a very good substitute for accurate data. Unfortunately, not sure the data we are getting is particularly accurate either.

In any case, I don't think 100% infestation, as predicted by your model, is realistic. I look along my street and I see a lot of people who are in quarantine as is my family. Not likely they/we get the infection, so 100% is doubtful.

Was listening to some doctor yesterday who was talking about NY City. According to him your r naught for NYC is 8. Unbelievable that they don't shut down the city.
 

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Thanks for your thoughts!

It's just to play with the numbers. I wouldn't make any non-common-sensical decisions with it. It's my way of placing a little control on the situation. Some people buy toilet paper, I fiddle with the numbers.

The upper limit of infection is actually 70% of this county's population, though I figure (hope?) that we're not going to hit that.

I spent a ton of time in my prior life taking data apart. The simple approaches that I prefer can be reasonably accurate, especially when you have past examples of the phenomenon to study. But you're right about needing good numbers going in. The lack of testing has left us in the dark as to when things got rolling and how far we've moved. The U.S., it seems, always has to wait to get it's collective pants kicked to do anything about anything important. It's baked into our culture, somehow.

An r naught of 8! If I run my model with value, it takes 30.5 days to hit their present confirmed cases of 30,765. Not too far from the "truth," I suppose. But my predicted deaths are 'way above theirs (1,078 v 672) and I'm already seeing recoveries. They're not.

My daughter's in Chicago and my son and his wife are in L.A.

Sigh.
 
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"I spent a ton of time in my prior life taking data apart". Does that mean you have been re-incarserated.(sp)?
 

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Discussion Starter #16
It is an interesting idea, but I would suggest that the bacteria might not stop at the shell of the virus. It might also go after some of the essential fats in your body. Novel approaches might have severe side effects. Would probably take more testing than is available.
 

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Take a Penicillin shot To control the amount of Bacteria level you can tolerate. When you are free of the virus take a different type of antibiotic to get completely rid of the bacteria. Always use different antibiotics so the bacteria cannot become immune to one.
 

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I have been reading about the bacteria it is not harmful to humans. And there are many different types of it there may be one that would work better than others. It’s just an idea.
 
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